Three years ago, most bankable green hydrogen models assumed an electrolyser capex curve that simply did not arrive. Instead, manufacturing scale in Asia and Europe pushed stack prices down faster than the forecasts, while renewable auctions in South Africa, Namibia and Chile kept the power side of the equation competitive.
The result is that projects which looked marginal in 2021 now clear their hurdle rates with room to spare, provided the developer has secured a firm offtake and a grid connection that does not collapse under variable load.
What to watch next
Watch three numbers: the delivered cost of renewable electricity, the full-load hours your electrolyser actually achieves, and the spread between grey and green hydrogen in your specific market. Those three determine viability far more than headline electrolyser capex.
Our advice to clients is unchanged: model the plant around the power profile you actually have, not the one you hope to negotiate later.